The Power of Weather Literacy

I wrote this book because the story of how we improve our ability to see dangerous weather coming matters to all of us. The environment is an elemental part of our lives. It fascinates us and sets the tone for our days, sometimes bringing the warmth of the sun from a clear spring sky, other days letting loose a sudden sprinkle that sends us reaching for our umbrellas. But weather can turn dangerous in moments. And as we’ve seen in recent years, the effects of climate change are worsening some extreme events. If climate change is a war, then individual weather events represent one battle after another—and you can’t expect to win a battle without good intelligence. Weather forecasts represent that intelligence.

The good news is, thanks to science and technology and legions of dedicated people across the world, forecasting keeps getting better. Advances are coming from refining existing approaches, such as ever-better computer models and orbiting satellites, as well as from unleashing new technologies, including artificial intelligence and the rich data available from the Internet of Things. These improvements, and advances yet to come, represent a huge untold story. It’s one that can better everyone’s lives—if we understand how forecasts work and how to put them to the best use.

I now think of this as weather literacy: the knowledge that helps you look at a forecast, comprehend the potential hazards, and, critically, take the appropriate steps. Anyone can benefit from becoming more weather literate: individuals, parents, workers (especially those whose jobs keep them outdoors), and public officials with safety responsibilities, such as school and hospital administrators. Business leaders, too, can benefit. Becoming more intelligent about the weather helps protect employees and drive better business decisions. 

After spending years researching the world of meteorology and learning about the latest advances, I now feel smarter every time I view a forecast. My goal for Cloud Warriors is that readers will come away feeling that way too.

Nerd Meets Forecast

If you’re wondering how I came to dive deep into the frontiers of forecasting, I will admit upfront: I’m a lifelong nerd or techie, whichever term you prefer. I began using the internet as a college student in 1985, when few people had even heard of it. But I was equally drawn to writing and journalism—to the opportunity to go behind the scenes, learn about things, and bring back stories to share. I eventually landed a reporting job at The Wall Street Journal, where I became the paper’s first internet columnist. As a writer, my passion has always been to look at cutting-edge science and technology and then bring those advances alive for readers—not only how they work, but why they matter, for better and for worse.

In the case of weather forecasting, a few years back I had an unexpected epiphany. I had just asked my Alexa smart speaker for the weather forecast, a small part of my morning routine. But I was suddenly struck: For all of the science and technology in my daily life, the forecast was something I counted on every day yet understood the least. I realized that I took the forecast for granted. I think that’s true for most of us. How does it get produced? How accurate is it? How can I use it effectively? I had so many questions, only a few vague answers, and I wanted to know more.

The more I learned, the more fascinated I became. Forecasts are more prescient that I realized—and getting better each year, despite public perceptions to the contrary. Then I had some conversations that drew me in even more deeply. One in particular was with a social scientist who studies how people respond to forecasts and warnings. I began to understand that, even as predictions keep getting more accurate, outcomes in terms of fatalities and injuries don’t always reflect that. This was a puzzle, and one that weather scientists have been working to figure out. That’s when I got really hooked—when I realized that for all of the amazing science and technology involved, the human element often determines whether people live or die.

How I Went Inside The Weather World

As for how I approached this book: When I was starting out in the newsroom at The Wall Street Journal in the 1990s, we had an informal credo: “The reporting will set you free.” It was a way of expressing that any time a story wasn’t coming into focus, any time you might feel stuck, the answer was to go back and learn more. So reporting is at the center of my process. For Cloud Warriors that translated to endless hours poring over reports and research publications. But mostly it meant getting out and getting to know the people closest to the weather. I rode along with storm chasers, met doctors who have treated victims of heat waves, and suited up to visit the clean room where weather satellites get assembled. I went inside companies pioneering the use of forecasts for business, ranging from a giant electric utility to a startup using drones to deliver Walmart orders. I got to know students training to be the next generation of weather scientists. And I learned from meteorologists producing local forecasts and testing out new technologies for storm warnings.

Along the way, I came to admire many of the people whose work I was able to observe. Of course, you can’t paint an entire group with one brush. Yet many of the people I encountered—whether inside the government or at universities or companies—are driven by a mission of public safety. Maybe it’s not prudent to invoke a martial metaphor, but I came to think of these people as warriors doing battle against the unfathomable power of Earth’s atmosphere, people with a concept of duty and an obligation to protect. Hence my fanciful conception of them as cloud warriors. No matter what you call them, this diverse, smart, and driven group of guardians helps protect us all every day.

My Hope for Readers

I want to mention something I took away from my travels to research Cloud Warriors. It’s remarkable to go from place to place in the United States and appreciate the amazing tapestry of the nation. From big cities to rural areas, the variety of cultures and landscapes never fails to fascinate. But I took away something extra. Different regions have their own weather quirks. Buffalo has its lake-effect snowstorms, the Southeast gets slammed by hurricanes, Southern California has its wildfires and so on. When I grew up in Michigan, we mainly worried about tornadoes. And all of these things remain true. 

But what I now appreciate more fully is that no matter where you are, you need to be prepared for practically every kind of weather. We’re seeing wildfires in Brooklyn. Texas and its power grid are getting slammed by ice and snow. Writing this book, I have become much less complacent in my own everyday life. I want to be prepared for any kind of weather. I hope reading Cloud Warriors will help other people do that too. To me, Cloud Warriors is a big story and a newsy one. That’s why I care so much about getting this story out there. Because we can all benefit from becoming smarter about the weather.